Putin’s Time Is Over - Thoughts on Ukraine
As the former Ukraine Desk Officer assigned to U.S. European Command J5 (Policy, Plans, & Strategy), and former Harvard Black Sea Security Cooperation Program Action Officer, and G.C. Marshall Center desk officer who’s personally hosted, among others in the Black Sea countries, the Russian General Staff, as well as being well read into contemporary security affairs as a recent graduate of “two” U.S. War Colleges, with a master’s degree in Strategic Studies, I’d like to impose a few thoughts we should consider regarding Vladimir Putin’s threats to Europe… Secretary of State Blinken at U.N. says he wants to prevent war in Ukraine (cbsnews.com)
1. Putin’s delusions of a reinvigorated USSR time has passed. The world, nor the Russian people, need or is buying what his desperate last gasp of power demonstrates as his out of step with the times antiquated vision of Russian cold-war glory he’s selling. Instead, the Russia people need to invite him to step aside and recognize the tyrannical and oppressive ways of the old USSR are not in line with future challenges and needs and what’s truly healthy for Russia and its citizens. New Russian leadership is needed at this crossroads. Russia must look toward a hopeful future of prosperity for its people that raises human freedoms, rights, and the promise of collective security offered by Western leaning rule of law. Or alternatively continue to pursue the tired paranoid vision of the past that aligns with crime, corruption, and iron fisted oppression. The path Putin is leading Russia down is a wasted opportunity to align Russian interests with the health and wellbeing of all Russian speaking people that prepares them to face the many challenges of the future. He needs to go.
2. On Ukraine specifically, the media is not discussing the tough questions because they don’t think you can grasp the abstract global security complexities at play – sad. You need to understand the implications and tremendous interests to the West (America and NATO).
3. NATO is crucial to American security. America is crucial to NATOs security. Think about this for a minute: without NATO, America and the light the worlds people crave go it alone. That would be a very bad circumstance to find ourselves in. What’s at stake is the darkness represented by consolidating the world led by the outdated tyrannical leadership of a Putin led Russia, a party dictatorship in China, a murderous cult-like leader in N. Korea, and a theocratic Iran, versus the promise of human rights and solutions to the world’s challenges the West represents. There’s work to be done and deluding ourselves of anything else won’t make it different.
4. China has spoken out in support of Russia’s intimidation of Ukraine, and the larger threat to NATO and America. China sees Putin’s efforts as a dress rehearsal for their aims on overtaking Taiwan and the entire South China Sea. China wants to know to what extent Western powers (America and NATO) have any stomach to do anything about it – all Western leaning Asian powers are watching. China loves nothing more than to watch with hopeful bated breath competing nations waste their resources and treasure fighting one another while China waits in the wings to assert their desired goal to dictate their vision of global leadership on you. And Putin plays into it like a jackass.
5. The Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are already NATO members. They are on Russia’s border just like Ukraine. But they are much smaller nations – far less equipped to resist Russian aggression than Ukraine. The Baltics and all allied NATO nations are watching how Ukraine unfolds because “they are next” if Putin gets his way. If NATO rolls over on Ukraine and permits Putin to have free rein, that would be a huge punch in the face for the American led NATO alliance and a difficult to recover from display of global weakness. China will surely give Putin a cookie for that with glee – then he’ll be next. Now, I want you to pull out a map and look where these countries are situated. Putin will not stop until he runs NATO out of the Baltics next after Ukraine is harnessed by Moscow – and China will watch and laugh. Putin, not the West or America is the villain folks. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO and the West have made no moves to intimidate or undermine the security interests of Russia – the case is quite to the contrary. I’ve been there, I know.
6. No, America and NATO cannot fight for and win Ukraine’s independence if they don’t want it – just like in Afghanistan. Ukraine must decide whether they want to be ruled under the dead end corrupt oligarchic rule Putin represents, or if they want the liberties, rule of law, and human rights the West represents. How they choose will weigh heavily on NATO’s options and actions. Though bad for us, if Ukraine chooses tyranny over freedom, it’s their choice. This may be the biggest threat we face going forward! And one we must take care in spending too much of our treasure on while China watches the idiot in Russia waste his resources – and NATOs – while China stands in the wings ready to enjoy the spoils.
7. America’s interests are hugely served by flexing the muscle we as taxpayers have paid for to make it loud and clear to Russia, China, N. Korea, and Iran, that the NATO alliance is strong, united, and prepared to defeat Russian forces in depth if they continue to threaten Ukraine and western allies- there needs to be no mistake about this. And Putin should not be appeased and rewarded with enabling concessions that only “temporarily” avert conflict. The Russian people need to just rise up and say “NO” to their outmoded leader – Putin – and say, we want better. Russia’s interests are best aligned with the West, not China’s communist dictatorship.
Folks, it’s the same old never-ending game – and don’t let me hear America should not be the global policeman – we never were, nor are. We always act in our best interests. The right American posture going forward is to be intelligent on the plays that are called, but also be bluntly aggressive with China’s patsy - Putin - in the use of American / NATO strength and show no weakness (without burning our treasure). Though our SECSTATE is doing the right thing in the U.N. today projecting an urgency to avert war and being clear about who the aggressor is in this circumstance, worries we are projecting weakness are not misplaced – a few thousand American troops in Poland and a handful of fighter jets in the Baltics compared to 100K plus combined arms Russian combat forces ready to roll. Who do you see as the more aggressive power?
America and NATO need to project strength and resolve – especially since we have the advantage. America and NATO need to stand for what’s right and promote it in contested countries. The world is watching. America / NATO should not allow Putin’s game to be a turning point in ceding any ground on the geopolitical stage. Its more dangerous to project weakness in these circumstances than strength.
COL Mike Seguin (U.S. Army, Retd)
The Mad Moose