Thoughts on Ukraine – Putin’s Unjustified Intimidation
As the former Ukraine Desk Officer assigned to U.S. European Command J5 (Policy, Plans, & Strategy), and former Harvard Black Sea Security Cooperation Program Action Officer, and G.C. Marshall Center desk officer who’s personally hosted, among others in the Black Sea countries, the Russian General Staff, as well as being well read into contemporary security affairs as a recent graduate of “two” U.S. War Colleges, with a master’s degree in Strategic Studies, I have a few thoughts we should consider regarding Vladimir Putin’s threats to Europe…
1. The media is not discussing the tough questions because they don’t think you can grasp the abstract global security complexities at play – sad. You need to understand the implications and tremendous interests to the West (America and NATO). Be aware!!!
2. NATO is crucial to American security. America is crucial to NATOs security. Think about this for a minute: without NATO, America goes it alone. That would be a very bad circumstance to find ourselves in with darkness consolidating the world led by the tyrannical leadership Russia, China, N. Korea, and Iran represent. Deluding ourselves of anything different won’t make it different.
3. China has spoken out in support of Russia’s intimidation of Ukraine because China sees it as a dress rehearsal for their aims on overtaking Taiwan and the entire South China Sea. China wants to know to what extent western powers (America and NATO) have any stomach to do anything about it – all western leaning Asian powers are watching. You betcha baby!
4. The Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are already NATO members. They are on Russia’s border just like Ukraine. But they are much smaller countries. The Baltics and all allied NATO nations are watching how Ukraine unfolds because “they’re next!” If NATO rolls over on Ukraine and permits Putin to have free rein, that would be a huge setback for the American led alliance and a display of global weakness. Now, I want you to pull out a map and look where these countries are situated. Putin will not stop until he runs NATO out of the Baltics next after Ukraine is harnessed by Moscow. Putin, not the West or America, is the villain. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO and the West have made no moves to intimidate or undermine the security interests of Russia – the case is quite the contrary.
5. No, America and NATO cannot fight for and win Ukraine’s independence if they don’t want it – just like in Afghanistan. Ukraine must decide whether they want to be ruled under the corrupt oligarchic rule Putin represents, or if they want the liberties, rule of law, and human rights the West represents. How they choose will weigh heavily on NATO’s options and actions. Though bad for us, if Ukraine choose tyranny over freedom, it’s their choice. This may be the biggest threat we face going forward!
6. America’s interests are hugely served by flexing the muscle we as taxpayers have paid for to make it loud and clear to Russia, China, N. Korea, and Iran, that the NATO alliance is strong, united, and prepared to defeat Russian forces in depth if they continue to threaten Ukraine and western allies- there needs to be no mistake about this. And Putin should not be appeased and rewarded with concessions that only “temporarily” avert conflict.
Folks, it’s the same old never-ending game – and don’t let me hear America should not be the global policeman – we never were, nor are. We always act in our best interests. The right America posture going forward is to be intelligent on the plays that are called, but also be bluntly aggressive with Putin in the use of American / NATO strength – show no weakness. Though our SECSTATE is doing the right thing in the U.N. today projecting an urgency to avert war and being clear about who the aggressor is in this circumstance, currently, I worry we are projecting weakness – a few thousand American troops in Poland and a handful of fighter jets in the Baltics compared to 100K plus combined arms Russian combat forces ready to roll. Who do you see as the more aggressive power?
America and NATO need to project strength and resolve – especially since we have the advantage. The world is watching. America / NATO should not allow Putin’s game to be a turning point in ceding any ground on the geopolitical stage. Its more dangerous to project weakness in these circumstances than strength.