Where to assign responsibility for Afghanistan?

President Obama. 

Yup, I know, I know… I’m either a bad liberal or a good conservative.  I like to think I’m neither.  Hear me out.

President Obama get’s credit for the order to apprehend OBL deep inside Pakistan unannounced in 2011 – big bold high-five for that call!  Barrack rocked the kasbah on that one!  Two thumbs up!  High water mark for the moral authority America rightfully perceived in tracking down and killing the infamous terrorist.  And, the turning point when America should have begun to conclude its mission for the reasons outlined below.    Note: “Unannounced” because Pakistan was knowingly harboring OBL.  In fact, that act resulted in a call from the Pentagon which culminated in the construction of an Israeli Tactical Operation Center I unofficially dubbed the OBL Memorial TOC when I was the Chief of Engineering Operations at European Command in 2011 (I digress - story for another day).

There’s a military doctrinal concept known as Center of Gravity (COG).  In a nutshell, when you defeat an adversary’s COG, you have prevailed in your mission – for you War College vets out there, I know, a simplification, we could discuss COGs all day long.  In the case of the Taliban, their COG was the financial support and protection they received from nations and interests friendly to the “usefulness they represented” – Pakistan being one of their many benefactors.  Without the well documented and media  reported financial support and protection received from Taliban benefactors, the Taliban could not have survived – after all, where would they get their beans, bullets, and safe havens – right?

The Pentagon, National Security Council, State Department diplomatic corps and the various President’s all knew this.  The gamble, which has unfolded to be a bad bet, was that regardless of the support America knew the Taliban was receiving from their benefactors, NATO, ISAF, etc. America could still achieve their objectives and build a strong Afghan democracy capable of defending itself and repel the Taliban.  Good intentions, but wrong.  And, contrary to good strategic military doctrine – but hey, the final call is the President’s, not the Pentagon’s.

Having spent a year at the embassy in Afghanistan and working with ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) and various Afghan ministries, and then 3 more years working under the NATO commander’s European Command in support of the Northern Distribution Route that supplied coalition forces in Afghanistan, I’ve formed my opinion on this.

You could falsely argue that the Pentagon, NSC, and State Department failed in their jobs to properly advise the President.  I certainly expect there to be some forthcoming Congressional Investigation in this area – especially on American systems of intelligence and readiness assessments.  But I will give some benefit of the doubt to the DOD.  Our SECDEFs and Chairman of the Joint Chief’s of Staff (CJCS) knew the Taliban’s COG circumstances (i.e. enabling benefactors).  But, in counsel with each President’s collective advisors, the error, even hubris, was President’s Bush and Obama believing the NATO coalition could ignore the Taliban’s COG and in the end prevail in building a viable democratic rule-of-law Afghanistan with a capable military without having to attack and defeat the Taliban’s COG.  This is each President’s “Bad Call.”    

The reasons for not attacking the Taliban’s COG are too long, foggy, and complex to discuss here.  But the main point is that it was a failure by President Obama (and President Bush) to believe the International Coalition could prevail without confronting and defeating the Taliban’s COG and that in time the Taliban would not be a decisive factor in, or obstacle to, achieving the coalitions’ objective of a self-sustaining Afghan government and military force.  As recent events are obviously pointing out, they got it wrong.

It was President Trump’s vision to cut the losses and get out, but he failed to execute that vision when he had the chance during his four years in office.  He did manage to throw the viability of the Afghan administration under the bus before he left office by negotiating directly with the Taliban and projecting America’s intent to withdraw.  This of course “shook” the Afghan leadership’s confidence in America having its back and they knew, like anyone with a few brain cells sparking upstairs, that their days were numbered and the American coalition that funded the Afghan leadership’s “paper government” would be coming to an end.    EVERYONE in Afghanistan with a strand of survival DNA at the point President Trump began negotiating with the Taliban was understandably “Every man for himself.” 

Now, it was only a question of the eloquence of the coalition withdrawal.  So, President Biden inherits the mess President Trump could not manage to conclude and decides we’re throwing good money after bad and gives the order to pull the plug.  A call that should have happened immediately after OBL was killed by U.S. forces in 2011 if attacking and defeating the Taliban’s COG was deemed unpalatable, unattainable, impossible, whatever.  Unfortunately, as we have seen, the U.S. National Security apparatus was caught flat footed and had failed to anticipate such a historic collapse was imminent. They inexcusably underestimated the massive scope of the logistics and security requirements needed for the human exodus operation that would be required – a shameful miscalculation – that’s quite disturbing actually.

So, is the Pentagon culpable for failing to provide a good assessment to each of the President’s?  I will give the benefit of the doubt and say no – notwithstanding the abysmal intelligence failure the Pentagon owns in part for not seeing the unprecedented and complete collapse of the ANA and political leadership in recent weeks which it must accept accountability for and do some soul searching on.  The Pentagon knew corruption ran deep in Afghanistan, and they knew what the Taliban’s COG was.  But most importantly, the Pentagon knew the leadership and will to fight was questionable at best because most folks knew that when the NATO forces left, the Taliban’s benefactors, who sheltered, funded, and resourced the Taliban, would be the likely future power brokers behind the resurgence of a Taliban government – and that’s exactly what happened.  After all, without the economic and political will by the NATO coalition to prop up the Afghan government, it was only a matter a time before the enterprise would run out of economic and leadership gas.  But, I give the benefit of the doubt that the Pentagon was clear in their advisory role to the Presidents of these risks for not taking action to defeat the Taliban’s COG over the years – going all the way back to the Bush administration.

If you are unwilling to attack an opponent’s COG and defeat them, then maybe you should reconsider your strategy and conserve your treasure and not waste it hoping for the best.  Bad call by President Obama (and Bush before him), poor execution by Trump, right call by Biden to pull the plug (though sloppy execution – which his entire team owns) – since attacking and defeating the Taliban’s COG, their benefactors, has always been off the table and a “no-go” proposition by American policy makers.  The most egregious pill to swallow is America all the while paid the Taliban’s benefactors who received millions of dollars in U.S. foreign aid – i.e. Foreign Military Sales, Foreign Military Financing, and USAid support.  Painful lesson learned – again.

Though it’s tempting to get lost in the emotional loss of billions of dollars. Or, the truly heartbreaking loss of thousands of service folks – who incidentally succeeded in their heroic mission of keeping Afghanistan from becoming a hive for launching attacks against America and its allies. Or the plight of the people who are trying to make a hasty exit who some suggest America has turned its back on. Focus, I say, on holding your elected leaders accountable for making the right honest informed decisions that are in America’s and our ally’s best interests.  As President Biden said, the buck stops with him.  He’s right on that.

If you think I’m off target on this… zip on by The Mad Moose where I’ll likely be roasting up a batch of VICTORY, share a Cup of AWESOME with me (“Rough Rider Coffee”), and tell me where I’m off target – gently, please.